Forecasting what’s next for housing in Mass.: A market in transition - How do we forecast what’s next for housing in Massachusetts? - by David O'Sullivan

From my perspective, this is very much a time of transition for the Commonwealth’s housing industry. While many projects currently in the pipeline have stalled due to economic, regulatory, and logistical pressures, there are also clear signs that forward progress is beginning to take shape. The challenge and opportunity lies in recognizing that meaningful housing reform takes time, coordination, and persistence. There are so many factors which influence housing policy.

There is no debate that Massachusetts is facing a housing crisis. Decades of underproduction, restrictive zoning, rising construction costs, and layered regulations have left the state with a severe supply imbalance. Demand continues to outpace available housing across nearly all price points, driving affordability further out of reach for many residents.

At the same time, there is a growing, multi-fronted effort underway to address this crisis. Many of these solutions are particularly legislative and zoning reforms that require years to enact, implement, and fully realize their impact. What we are seeing now is the early phase of that long arc toward reform.

Some initiatives began years ago and are now starting to demonstrate positive effects. The MBTA Communities Zoning Act is a notable example. While controversial in some municipalities, it represents a structural shift toward allowing higher-density housing near transit which is a critical component of increasing supply in sustainable, smart growth ways.

Other reforms, such as the statewide ADU (Accessory Dwelling Unit) law, are just beginning to gain traction. ADUs alone will not solve the housing crisis, but they provide an important incremental tool particularly in established neighborhoods to gently increase density without fundamentally altering community character. Recent work by the Mass. Housing Finance agency providing financing for ADU construction can help accelerate this.

The current state administration has made clear that housing is a top priority and has shown a willingness to examine all aspects of the housing. A significant step in this process was the creation of the Unlocking Housing Production Commission (UHPC), which sought input from a broad range of stakeholders across the industry.

The Commission’s recently released report, Building for Tomorrow, offers more than 50 recommendations aimed at increasing housing supply and lowering costs for Massachusetts residents. Its members include housing policy experts, civic leaders, local officials, home builders, and labor representatives, a cross-section that reflects the complexity of the problem.

The Commission was tasked with examining how state and local laws, regulations, and practices could be revised to ensure Massachusetts can produce the housing necessary to meet growing demand. As secretary of Housing and Livable Communities Ed Augustus noted, “The crisis we find ourselves in today was decades in the making, but with the right strategies in place, we can change that trajectory.”

This report is not a silver bullet, but it is an important framework and a signal that housing reform is being approached with seriousness and urgency.

The forecast for housing in Massachusetts is not about a sudden market correction or a single policy fix. It is about gradual structural change. Progress will likely come in increments with more multifamily housing near transit, increased use of ADUs, modest density increases in suburban communities, and clearer pathways for developers to bring projects to completion.

For those of us working within the housing and development industry, this moment calls for patience, collaboration, and continued advocacy. The transition underway today may not yield immediate relief, but it represents an important step toward a more balanced, attainable housing future for the Commonwealth.

David O’Sullivan, AIA, is the president of O’Sullivan Architects, Inc., Reading, Mass.