A look at New Hampshire’s commercial real estate investment market - by Abigail Bachman and Andrew Robbins

 

 

If you were cautious about commercial real estate heading into 2026, the first half has likely given you some reassurance. The market isn’t roaring back overnight, but the pieces that matter most to investors – greater rate stability, improving deal flow, and realistic seller pricing – have quietly fallen into place. After a few years of buyers and sellers struggling to find common ground, we’re finally seeing meaningful transaction volume again.

Here in New Hampshire, the industrial market remains relatively healthy with a 6.2% vacancy rate and upward pressure on rental rates, while tenant and investor demand continues to favor quality space and well-located assets. The fundamentals are intact, and the bid-ask gap that stalled so many deals has narrowed considerably.

The Rate Environment:  Finally, Some Clarity
For the better part of three years, rate uncertainty was one of the biggest obstacles to getting deals done. Buyers and sellers couldn’t underwrite to the same number because nobody knew where rates were headed next. That dynamic has shifted.

The 10-year Treasury has stabilized in the 4% to 4.25% range since mid-2025, which has meaningfully calmed debt markets. Lenders are back at the table, and buyers can model debt service with a reasonable degree of confidence. That predictability matters more than any specific rate level, and that’s allowing deals to move forward.

Where Investors Are Finding Value
Not every property type is created equal right now and the best returns are going to the investors who understand that distinction.

Industrial
Industrial continues to be one of the most dependable asset classes in the region. New Hampshire benefits from its position between Boston and Portland, with limited new supply, and continued demand for well-located industrial product.

Recent transactions reflect investor confidence. A fully leased 45,650 s/f building in Nashua sold earlier this year for $6.8 million ($149 per s/f) to a Mass.-based buyer, with Colliers representing the seller. At the higher end of the market, a 155,000 s/f modern industrial building in Salem traded for $32 million ($206 per s/f), underscoring the premium investors will pay for quality, well-located product.

Retail
Retail has had a quieter comeback than most people expected, and it deserves more credit than it gets. Neighborhood and necessity-based retail, grocery-anchored centers, service-oriented strip properties, and net leased single-tenant assets have outperformed broader market expectations.

In New Hampshire, distressed vacancies are being absorbed. Former pharmacy locations are being subdivided and re-tenanted, while other vacant sites are attracting owner-users and redevelopment capital. A former Rite Aid in Pelham recently sold to AutoZone for $1.75 million – a straightforward example of necessity retail backfilling gaps left by pharmacy closures.

Multifamily
Multifamily remains one of the most fundamentally supported asset classes in the state. New Hampshire’s affordability and housing supply challenges aren’t resolving themselves anytime soon. The state continues to draw residents from Mass. and other high-cost markets, and that population pressure keeps rental demand strong.

Transaction volume reflects demand across every size tier. Two large Tuscan Village transactions closed in Q1, with 281 units trading at $137 million and 230 units at $125 million. But activity hasn’t been limited to institutional scale deals – six-unit buildings are trading alongside large developments, with the average sale price per unit running approximately $180,000.

Net Lease and Sale-Leaseback Opportunities
The distinction between investment-grade credit tenants and everything else is more pronounced than it has been in some time, with lower-quality product moving more selectively and at wider spreads.

One dynamic we’re watching closely is the volume of owner-occupied commercial real estate held by business owners approaching a transition – whether that’s retirement, a sale of the business, or a recapitalization. Many of these properties have been held for 10, 15, 20 years, and the equity is substantial.

Sale-leaseback structures can provide an attractive solution in these situations. A business owner sells the property, leases it back under a long-term agreement, and walks away with capital that can fund retirement, reduce personal debt, or reinvest in the business. For the investor, a properly structured sale-leaseback can provide a long-term lease with an established tenant that has operated out of that building for years.

What to Watch in the Second Half
The second half of 2026 is likely to remain characterized by moderate economic growth and persistent inflation, limiting the potential for aggressive rate cuts while still allowing for gradual improvement in CRE fundamentals. For income-focused investors, it’s actually a reasonable backdrop. Stable rates, steady occupancy, and long-term leases are the formula.

Tariffs are worth monitoring, particularly for investors with industrial or manufacturing exposure. Building material costs have already been affected, with implications for both new development economics and renovation underwriting.

The bigger picture is this: we’re past the period of paralysis that defined CRE from 2022 through most of 2025. Deals are getting done. Debt is available. Sellers have adjusted. For investors who have been waiting for greater clarity before deploying capital, the second half of 2026 may present one of the more compelling entry points we’ve seen in several years.

Abigail Bachman is a vice president, and Andrew Robbins is a senior associate at Colliers in New Hampshire, Portsmouth, N.H.