Whose doing what, going where, why, or why not - by Thomas House

With the New England housing market going up, down, sideways in a game of chutes and ladders, we thought it a good idea to put down the foggy crystal ball and play chutes and ladders instead. 

Whose doing what, going where, why, or why not.

The easy part is plotting Massachusetts’ now infamous unaffordability crisis - and the Commonwealth garners an especially  brutal assessment by Realtor.com. ‘earning’ an F - 49^th out of 50 - on the site’s state by state report card on measures such as affordability and new home construction. (The 50^th? Stay tuned; looking at you, Rhode Island.)

Despite rolling waves of young people attending the region’s highly rated educational institutions, half are headed for the exits on graduation - a considerable loss of leadership potential.

Still, for the third time in a decade, the hottest zip code in the country (not just Mass.) is Peabody (median listing $600,000, time on market 20 days). Westfield, Mass. near Springfield in #5 on the list. Older, well-maintained homes, move-in ready.

Going south…Rhode Island?

One place Rhode Island beats out Massachusetts is in the race to the bottom - the one state ranked lower in the Realtor.com survey. The Rhode Island Association of Realtors reports continued rise in prices and declining inventory, producing an increase in both the number of homes on the market and days on market. 

All these increases result in a decrease in sales. We did say this is chutes and ladders we’re playing here. 

One bright spot: the median price of multifamily homes skyrocketed by 15.1% year over year; while everything else increased, multifamily prices held steady.

Connecticut by the numbers

Connecticut brings the crazy because regional divides make the state a kaleidoscopic real estate environment. Fairfield County skews the real estate numbers due to its proximity to New York City which drives competition for overpriced housing by those that can easily afford it.

 No one will be surprised at the dead zones in the market - the northern corners of the state, and the blighted post-industrial coast. But Connecticut’s most middle class city is Danbury - commuting distance to both New York and Hartford is where the chutes level out with the ladders. As CT Insider reports: “Danbury helps show the limits of any “hot” or “cold” ranking. Its housing market kept building and selling this year, yet the typical home is worth almost exactly what it was a year ago. In Connecticut, a market can be busy without gaining value, and it can gain value without being the busiest place in the state.”

Seventy five percent vacancy, and no room in the inn

Looking to northern New England at a glance, we read that Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire have the highest share of vacant homes in the country. And almost none of them are available to rent or buy. From Boston.com

Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief consumer finance analyst, said the findings illustrate why high vacancy rates can be misleading.

“All of these vacancies can be challenging because if a lot of the inventory in your area is sitting vacant and unavailable, it can push home costs and even rents higher,” Schulz said. “That’s the last thing anybody needs.”

With so few vacant homes actually on the market, Schulz said, buyers and renters face tighter inventory, stronger competition, and higher prices.

Seasonal, vacation, or second homes are effectively out of bounds, greatly reducing the size of the functioning real estate market. And as New Hampshire, with 25% of its population born in Massachusetts, is finding out, prices nearing a million dollars are the brickwall limit at which a 90-minute commute no longer pencils out.

In Maine, a midyear report by Lamacchia Real Estate notes that there is a 3.9% chute - drop in pending sales - following a 5.3% ladder, an increase in pending sales. The prediction is ‘stable and balanced’.

Vermont is beset with relatively high list prices, and a longish 54 days on market. Which, according to our back of the envelope calculation, gives buyers some leverage…but where are the buyers?

The forecast for this market is warm.

Our take?

Most of the charts and graphs we see of the past 10 years look like electrocardiograms, and if this keeps up, we may all be needing one.

References

Affordability and Homebuilding: State-by-State Report Cards

https://www.realtor.com/research/state-report-cards-2025/

‘Distressing’ Number of Boston’s Gen Z Residents Eye the Exit as Housing Costs Soar

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/distressing-boston-massachusetts-gen-z-residents-leaving-housing-costs/

Annual Monthly Gains in Median Price Continue in Rhode Island’s Housing Market

https://www.rirealtors.org/news/2026/08/20/press-release/annual-monthly-gains-in-median-price-continue-in-rhode-island-s-housing-market/

These are the hottest and coldest ZIP codes in the Connecticut housing market

https://www.ctinsider.com/realestate/article/connecticut-hot-cold-zip-codes-home-values-22401557.php

This North Shore city was Realtor.com’s hottest ZIP code in 2026

https://www.boston.com/real-estate/local-news/2026/08/11/peabody-named-hottest-zipcode-2026-realtor-com/

Looking to buy in New England? Vacancy rates may paint a misleading housing picture.

https://www.boston.com/real-estate/home-buying/2026/07/20/vacancy-rates-lendingtree-new-england-vacation-homes/

2026 Maine mid-year housing report
https://www.lamacchiarealty.com/2026-me-mid-year/

2026 Vermont housing market trends & insights
https://www.realtor.com/local/market/vermont

Thomas House, AIA, is principal of THA Architects, LLC, Stratham, N.H.