Roger Staubach, Jones Lang LaSalle
While the talking heads and Vegas odds makers look to point differentials, QB ratings and other on-the-field stats, Staubach and the JLL team are once again sticking with what they know best — commercial real estate — to make their pick.
According to the firm's analysis of the last 13 season finale games, teams based in cities with the higher office vacancy rate (i.e. more space available for lease) have won the Lombardi Trophy 62% of the time, including last February when Baltimore (15.5% vacancy) edged San Francisco (11.8% vacancy).
This year, according to the latest JLL Research, the overall vacancy rate in the Mile High city stands at 13.9% compared with 12.5% in the Emerald City, making the Broncos the firm's favorite to win the crown.
JLL's Roger Staubach, who was MVP of the 1972 game, said that his pick also takes into account Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, whose play has been on the upswing all season, much like the LoDo micro-market in downtown Denver, where the vacancy rate closed 2013 at 8% and more than 550,000 s/f of new buildings are currently under construction and one 110,000 s/f building recently delivered.
"Peyton Manning is one of the greatest NFL quarterbacks of all time," Staubach said. "I believe in our JLL formula, but more importantly, I also believe in Peyton and I know he's going to get the job done for the Broncos and the great people of Denver on Sunday night."
At the same time, Staubach also had high praise for the Seahawks' defense, which has held its opponents to an average of just 11.6 points per game over their last five contests, and is almost as hot as Seattle's South Lake Union submarket (vacancy rate of just 4%) or how the regional office market performed in 2013 yielding the fourth highest rate of net absorption across the country.
"I love Seattle's 'D,' I love [quarterback] Russell Wilson and I love 'The 12th Man,'" he said. "But this is Denver's year."