Steven Elliott, Elliott Gottschalk & AssociatesMerry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwanza, Happy Festivus, Happy New Year and if I’ve left anyone out I apologize and wish you all good tidings as well.
As I gaze back on 2015 it was an up and down year to put it mildly but at least we moved in a semi positive direction. There have been significant gains in many sectors in the real estate market with new price levels in many towns and cities throughout the New England states. Some areas are still hurting but even those have made some gains.
What’s on tap for 2016? Good question. We’ve had the first increase in interest rates in eight years. Of note the interest rates charged by the Feds decreased from 3.5% down to .25% from January 22 to December 16 of 2008. That’s a whopping 3.25% in 11 months. Pretty dramatic and we should always keep that tucked in the back of our minds, just to remind us how dramatic the economy’s collapse was back then. We should also remember it can happen again. I hearken back to the S & L crisis and bailout of 1989-90. That was when FIRREA abolished the Federal Home Loan Bank Board and FSLIC, switched S&L regulation to the Office of Thrift Supervision and created the (gag me with a spoon) Resolution Trust Corporation(RTC). Yes there are many of you out there that recall those horrid days and how the government swore it would never happen again. And yet many committed far greater crimes, with the government again, inept and incompetent to understand or act, while a relatively small group of individuals were responsible for the last and “greatest” recession of our, or any other time. As an aside, I’ve mentioned it a number of times but please read “The Big Short.”
Yes you can go the Cliff Notes route and see the movie, which I read is getting great reviews but obviously, the book does a much better job laying out exactly what nearly drove the country into bankruptcy. And as unbelievable as this may sound to you my fellow appraisers, it was not our fault. Yes, the bad actors in our profession contributed to the situation but the real culprits were on Wall Street. They knew precisely what they were doing and did so without regard and with complete disdain for the entire country and everyone in it. Oh well, let us all resolve to be more vigilant and watchful as we move into the middle of this decade.
On a completely different track, take your USPAP Update. I’ve already taught it twice, to more than 80 individuals and I’m sure my fellow instructors have also been doing the same. There have been a number of changes, which in the two classes I taught have sparked a good deal of discussion. Some of the changes are subtle but will have an impact on the way you operate. Also, the elimination of all the Statements and revisions to some definitions are also worth studying. There have already been FAQ’s issued by the Appraisal Standards Board in anticipation of the questions revolving around their change about physical characteristics of a property and what are and are not assignment results. Have I piqued your interest? I hope enough so to get you to sign up soon. I’m always amazed at the number of appraisers who wait until the latter months of the second year in the USPAP cycle to sign up. Yes I chide them considerably for their recalcitrance. I always think it will do some good but most of the time, not so much.
So, as Mr. Spock would say, “Live long and prosper.” I wish you all a happy, healthy and peaceful 2016!
Steven Elliott, SRA, MRA, is principal at Elliott Gottschalk & Associates, Ashland, Mass.