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Fallout, layoffs and outlook - by David Kirk
September 11, 2020
Dipstick not covering as quickly as anticipated or hoped. Supports expiring and allowances depleted, running on fumes. Sputtering, choking, chugging. And yet markets and supply chains are full and functioning.
Every day is day one - by David Kirk
August 14, 2020
The pandemic has prevailed long enough to have established a new economy with new demography and technography – patterns of change, post pandemic. In many respects, the new norms are evolving, yet uncertainty about duration, shape and impact still prevails with daily impacts.
Addressing the current black swan disruptor - by David Kirk
March 13, 2020
The contagion from COVID-19 has been a black swan disruptor resulting in collaborative communication and cooperation within the global economy. The built environment is vulnerable. The built environment can also be a constructive component in containing
What’s built is what’s financed, mostly. - by David Kirk
February 14, 2020
What’s built is what’s financed, mostly. Accordingly, good ideas in commercial real estate need buy-in from the capital markets, even where equity capital is substantial in the capital stack. Demand continues to be supported by job gains (net 225,000 newly hired in January 2020), m
Pick it up: 2020 is the New Next Decade - by David Kirk
January 10, 2020
Commercial real estate markets will continue to be increasingly competitive and decreasingly liquid as 2020 unfolds. Many traditional measures such as rent, selling prices, vacancy/occupancy rates will slideways, or bounce marginally in both directions.
Portfolio punch for 2019 and 2020 - by David Kirk
December 13, 2019
Year-end portfolio adjustments for tax, performance and allocation strategies are the logical foundation for tweaking budgets, resetting spending/saving plans for commercial real estate for 2020. Financial media and analysts/accountants focus on publicly traded investments,
Pause in the portfolio - period of adjustment is important - by David Kirk
November 8, 2019
The importance of periods of adjustment cannot be overstated. Everybody has a portfolio, choices to be made. The pause can be as aggressive and critical as the buy or the sell to maintain balance and the frontier. The pause is not
Appraising and underwriting during periods of inflection - by David Kirk
October 18, 2019
Market inflections are a challenge for both the appraiser and underwriter in the commercial property markets. Economic and property market trends are used for forecasting, and forecasting methodologies are often relied upon in commercial property markets.
Engage your constituents: Prospects can be engaged - by David Kirk
September 13, 2019
Before algorithmic failure, robo call default or call bank ball drops, engage your constituents. Clients and customers and respective prospects can be engaged. The deal is more than a transaction. Always more than trivial and frequently strategic, commercial real estate decisions
Moderate fundamentals: FED cuts rate - by David Kirk
August 9, 2019
The Open Markets Committee (OMC) of the Federal Reserve Bank reduced rates to 2.00% - 2.25% at the meeting on July 31. Baked into mid-term rates are assumption of further FED upward action. Now some slack.
Top Ten Issues Impacting Real Estate: Getting the deal done - by David Kirk
July 12, 2019
For real estate professionals in commercial real estate operating in private investment markets, nonprofit institutional and public sectors - the built environment results increasingly from public private partnerships (PPP).
Growth and underwriting: Keep your hands on the wheel - by David Kirk
May 10, 2019
Commercial real estate investment benefits generally from economic growth. Slicing and dicing the data and going deeper than the headlines and sound bites provides greater comfort for the commercial propert
Watching and managing debt: We’re paying close attention - by Kirk and Pelletier
April 12, 2019
First quarter securities market has been resilient, albeit temperamental. The fixed income market has fluctuated if not gyrated with movements in treasuries sending mixed signals. Further, a partial and sporadic inverted yield curve on government securities has been recorded irregularly during the quarte
Commercial real estate continues to be challenging reconciliation of the dynamics of our markets - b...
March 29, 2019
Solid domestic economic data and broadly stable commercial real estate markets persist. At least commentators and pundits observe the quality approving of the current data dump. Rates may hold steady all year during 2019. The FED has demystified 2019. The FED intends to continue to gradually normalize its balance sheet
New resilience and traditional basics for 2019 - by David Kirk
February 8, 2019
Early recaps, wrap-ups and forecasts for commercial real estate are strong and measured. Fundamentals were stable to strong in 2018 and so were the first three quarters of 2018 for commercial real estate. The Fed has finally paused on rates and focused with transparency on its oversized balance sheet.
Get ready for a 2019 reset for commercial real estate - by David Kirk
January 11, 2019
Capital sources for commercial real estate are generally flush if cautiously prepared to invest during 2019. How flush will be apparent in the forthcoming weeks as term sheets are exchanged on debt and equity commitments, and offers on properties and portfolios.
Building and developing for supply chain spillover - by David Kirk
November 9, 2018
Commercial real estate is a residual and derivative of economic activity. At The Counselors 2018 annual meeting in Charleston, S.C. October 20-24, attendees experienced an extraordinary telling of the dramatic impact of jobs, quantum
Counselors attend the annual meetings to compare notes - by David Kirk
September 14, 2018
Markets are persistently positive, with moderate volatility in securities and capital markets registering earnings reports, transactions and bankruptcies, tweets and trade news. August nonfarm payrolls increased by 201,000 jobs, nicely rebounding from 147,000 in July.
Markets are recording some pushback on rates and rents - by David Kirk
August 10, 2018
Seemingly unrelated, current commercial real estate capital markets and property markets are recording some pushback on rates and rents respectively. Also, a marginal decline in activity, volume and velocity. Summer stickiness was often