Coming down for the count…soft landing - by David Kirk

Data trifecta, according Axios Macro’s Neil Irwin and Courtney Brown in late October, highlights of a Bloomberg survey of analysts and forecasters and economists.

4, 3, 2, Won. A soft landing!

GDP looks like a full three for Q3. Actual Q3, 2.8 q/q, good enough. And inflation at two for the 12 months of the most recent period based on Personal Expenditures Consumer Price Index. With expected unemployment of 4.1% for October, employment has so many points of light, it’s bright. Actual unemployment from DOL?

So, how does voting constituency and the politic moan and complain, all the way to the polls. And will the recently updated measures trickle down, down for the count at the voting polls. Next time, we will know the trickle down theory.

Pipeline is opening up. Permits being filed, pending being pulled, and being extended. Certainly still only light traffic. More hopeful than shovel ready. A dibble, a drabble, and a dribble of construction funding. Still needs a cut or two in FED rates to swell accessibility. Deals, still, are getting done. And patterns in transactions and terms are developing.

Following hometown data, transactions, capital flows, pipelines. Mayor Wu is closing in on a revision to Boston’s state chartered real estate classification program in discussions with commercial landlords and developers. Beacon Hill must approve this arrangement. Now, the climate readiness - plans, programs, permits and performance. Enough activity to establish patterns for performance. Sharpening pencils and politics. Pick the paths that matter. Insurance for operating properties continues to burden commercial investments as well as single family.

Read the commentary, the forecasters, the surveys. Still, resilience, robust labor conditions, softening inflation. As good as it gets. A few Bps here and there. And the outcome of election November 5 might lag midnight poll watchers who will get an extra hour to count as Daylight Saving expired November 3. Much to encourage the commercial property sector and the stewards of the built environment under new leadership.

David Kirk is founder, chief executive officer of Kirk & Co., Boston, Mass.