Charles Guy Andrews, CMA AppraisalsGoodbye 2016 and hello 2017! Here is a snapshot of market conditions in various sub-markets within the Washington County Vermont single-unit real estate market. This data is compiled using the Paragon Multiple Listing Service and does not include any for sale by owner information, and may also include some sales data that might not be considered arms-length transactions. For comparison purposes, median sale and list prices are preferred over average sale and list prices as the median (which is the middle point of an arrayed set of data) is a fairly stable indicator that is not influenced by extreme value points. Sales data has an equal probability of falling below or above the median value indication.
The city of Montpelier had 65 single unit home sales in 2016, reflecting an absorption rate of 5.42 home sales per month. Median sale price is $239,500, down 0.82% from 2015. Days on market showed an average of 111 days and a median of 35 days with a 96.4% list price to sales price ratio. With only 8 active listings in the city currently, there is enough inventory for only 1.4 months. Supply and demand are out of balance with a shortage of available housing. Median list price of these listings is $361,500. Montpelier continues to hold strong market appeal for buyers, due mostly to the proximity of all shopping, conveniences, employment opportunities and the full array of city services that are available.
The city of Barre had 83 single unit home sales in 2016, reflecting an absorption rate of 6.91 home sales per month. Median sale price is $142,500, up 14% from 2015. Days on market showed an average of 170 days and a median of 98 days with a 98.3% list price to sales price ratio. With 45 active listings in the city currently, there is enough inventory for 6.5 months. Supply and demand are considered to be in balance. Median list price of these listings is $134,900. Single unit sales in Barre city in 2016 demonstrate the highest median sale price since 2007, unfortunately we all remember what happened to market conditions after 2007; nationally the housing bubble crashed.
The town of Barre had 74 single unit home sales in 2016, reflecting an absorption rate of 6.16 home sales per month. Median sale price is $169,000, down 9.6% from 2015. Days on market showed an average of 95 days and a median of 41 days with a 96.4% list price to sales price ratio. With 45 active listings in Barre town currently, there is enough inventory for 7.3 months. Supply and demand are out of balance with an over-supply of housing. Median list price of these listings is $160,000. Barre town single unit value trending follows a consistent pattern. Peaking in 2006 at $169,000; a period of decline then peaking in 2011 at $180,000, again a period of decline then peaking in 2015 at $187,000. If this pattern remains consistent values will not rise again for several years.
The U-32 school district (Berlin, Calais, East Montpelier, Middlesex and Worcester) had 69 single unit home sales in 2016, reflecting an absorption rate of 5.75 home sales per month. Median sale price is $235,000, up 7.5% from 2015. Days on market showed an average of 116 days and a median of 59 days with a 96.2% list price to sales price ratio. With 45 active listings in these towns currently, there is enough inventory for only 7.8 months. Supply and demand are out of balance with an over-supply of housing. Median list price of these listings is $290,000. The towns with the shortest commute (Berlin, East Montpelier & Middlesex) into the Montpelier area tend to see the best value trends in this sub-market, as buyers like having the best of both worlds, such as being close to the city but still being in a low density area that has a country feel. (Disclosure: this appraiser lives in East Montpelier).
The Harwood school district, also known as the Mad River Valley (Duxbury, Fayston, Moretown, Waterbury, Warren and Waitsfield) had 141 single unit home sales in 2016, reflecting an absorption rate of 11.75 home sales per month. Median sale price is $290,000, down 3.3% from 2015. Days on market showed an average of 197 days and a median of 114 days with a 95.2% list price to sales price ratio. With 123 active listings in these towns currently, there is enough inventory for only 10.4 months, considered an oversupply. Median list price of these listings is $397,000. The Mad River Valley carries a value premium for being located close to three ski areas (Mt Ellen, Mad River Glen and Sugarbush). This market also attracts many out of state and vacation home buyers. Generally speaking values in this market have been fairly stable in the last 3 years, and values have recovered since the real estate bubble burst in 2007.
Conclusions: With the exception of Barre city, values are fairly stable within these sub-markets. Moving state jobs into Barre city along with the completion of the downtown revitalization project have had a positive impact on the real estate market (well done Barre city!) and for the first time in quite a while supply and demand factors in Barre city are now in balance (having had a large oversupply of housing for several years). Looking forward, there are no large plant or employment center closures anticipated in Washington county. There is some new construction occurring in the area: off Windywood Dr. in Barre a 64 unit project has had 6 closings; Waterbury Commons off Perry Hill Road is starting on phase two of its 26 lot subdivision; Gallagher Acres in Moretown is virtually sold out. While this area does have a seasonal market that is much slower with far fewer sales closing during the winter months, the real estate market appears fairly healthy.
I celebrated a professional anniversary in 2016, with 20 years on the job as a real estate appraiser in central Vermont.
Have specific questions? Feel free to contact me via e-mail; [email protected].
Charles Guy Andrews, SRA & Certified Residential Appraiser at CMA Appraisals, Inc., Montpelier, VT.