Is this the peak? Appraisers have never been busier and can’t keep up with the volume - by Maria Hopkins

Chasing and capturing the peak of the market is always difficult and everyone wants to accomplish it. It certainly feels like we are close to the peak but we thought that to be true last year. As long as interest rates stay low, it appears market appreciation will continue in areas where there is high demand for housing and inventory just doesn’t keep up. Even the last few months seem to have had an even larger jump in prices. We are seeing a shift in where some people want to live caused by the reality that many are never going to have to return to their offices and working from home is the new norm. It is very liberating for many, who realize they can now move to where they can get a lot more house for their money. Property owners in and around Boston for example can move further west and purchase a million plus house because they can now work from home. Demand for high-end homes was waning with the volatility of the stock market, but now there are often multiple offers for houses that had been sitting. The stock market has remained strong at this point, but it does feel like we are floating. With unemployment high and unemployment stimulus check money running out eventually, many will start to sink. Refinancing and equity lines are at unprecedented levels. Many are remodeling and upgrading their homes, taking advantage of low rates and more time at home. Appraisers have never been busier and can’t keep up with the volume. 

The vaccines may finally get us our lives back. There is a general feeling in the market that we may be at the bubble stage, due for a crash, but not knowing when or what will be the thing that causes it to finally turn. Rates increasing too much might do it. So, we hope they stay relatively stable. I thank God every day that we are blessed to be in a state where the economy is better than many other states. But there are many that are struggling either financially or just emotionally with the drastic changes we must now live with and the aftermath of the pandemic. 

Even though some states are doing well, others are not. As always, there is much speculation regarding the real estate market. Values in most areas of the state continue to appreciate. Appraisers must keep up with estimating the rate at which values are appreciating in an increasing market. There are still some appraisers actually not applying time adjustments and stating that the market is stable and not appreciating. This is a real problem since there has never been such strong evidence to the contrary in my 36 years business history. We can only reflect what is happing now. But still, it sure feels like we are at the peak, like we are floating. Only time will tell.

Maria Hopkins SRA, RA, is president of Maria Hopkins Associates, Spencer, Mass.