On June 14, a capacity crowd gathered in the conference center of KPMG's new office in Two Financial Center to hear an update on the current state of the commercial real estate loan sale market from a panel of industry leaders. The program was moderated by Greg LaBine, director, Holliday Fenoglio Fowler, L.P. and included Jonathan Davis, founder, C.E.O., C.I.O. of The Davis Companies, Tom Goodwin, executive vice president of DebtX and Paula Mello, vice president at TD Bank. The program focused on the $1.6 trillion in outstanding commercial real estate loans. Of this amount, $300 billion was classified as distressed, and of this amount approximately 40% had been or was being worked out, which left nearly $180 billion remaining as distressed. The panel also further drilled down into the conduit segment of the commercial real estate loan market. While the panel commented that inflows to special servicers were decreasing (with the loans that were being worked out generally the smaller loans in the pool), there is still nearly $90 billion currently of CMBS in special servicing - and nearly 70% of this amount is delinquent. Moreover, the panel pointed out that while there appears to currently be a calm in the market there is a tsunami a conduit loans maturing over the next six to seven years - over $40 billion annually from and 2011 through 2014 and over $100 billion annually from 2015 through 2017. The panel concluded that while this is obviously an issue for many it will also be an opportunity for others given the amount of pent up capital and liquidity in the market.
REFA has three great programs upcoming - the Annual Fall Conference, our first annual Interest Rate Forum and the highlight of the REFA year - the 23rd Annual REFA Gala. On September 9th, a panel of industry experts will share their thoughts and observations on the markets for both financing and transactions for commercial real estate. The keynote speaker will be Hans Nordby of Property and Portfolio Research and the panel, which will include Stacey Berger, executive vice president of Midland Loan Services, Paul Marcus, managing principal of Marcus Partners, Peter Goedecke, president of Goedecke and Company, and Michael Roberts, vice president of AvalonBay, will be moderated by Cappy Daume, managing director of The Davis Companies. On September 20th, REFA's education committee will present its first annual interest rate forum in a program titled "Are Interest Rates Going UP and When? What Will Happen When They Do?" Given the recent debt ceiling brinksmanship, worries of unprecedented U.S. default and threatened downgrades to the credit rating of the federal government this timely program should result in a lively discussion. Panelists will include Michael Acton, CFA and director of research at AEW, Stephen Andrews, senior vice president GBM Rates Group, Sovereign Bank and Brian Conly, private real estate hedge advisory team, Chatham Financial. And last, but not certainly least, on Wednesday, October 12th, REFA will host its 23rd Annual Gala. The highlight of the Gala is the presentation of Robert S. Swain Jr. Distinguished Service Award. This year's recipient is Thomas Hynes, Jr., co-chairman and CEO of Colliers International.

Eric Nelson is the 2011 president of REFA, Boston, Mass.