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Story results for: david kirk
Coming down for the count…soft landing - by David Kirk
November 8, 2024
GDP looks like a full three for Q3. Actual Q3, 2.8 q/q, good enough. And inflation at two for the 12 months of the most recent period based on Personal Expenditures Consumer Price Index. With expected unemployment of 4.1% for October, employment has so many points of light, it’s bright. Actual unemployment from DOL?
Commercial real estate property in the fall - by David Kirk
October 11, 2024
The Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) did not disappoint in NYC. Out of the box at the annual meeting of the CRE, NYC is active, if not vibrant. A grand variety of sub market volcanic eruptions. The five Burroughs are caring and sharing. And transactions are occurring and activity ramping.
Fall is a time for change - A good time to take a leap forward - by David Kirk
September 13, 2024
Fall is a time for change. The last summer romp and first frost, at least in the northeast. A good time to take a leap forward. Pardon the shorthand and flagrant redundancy, deliberated to reflect the rhythm that is apparent.
The Federal Open Markets Committee is foot dragging - by Kirk
July 12, 2024
Being late to the cutting date has started to color commentary on data and apparent conditions. Without much impact on the markets. Go figure. Innovation, including Artificial Intelligence and automaton, personal and business services, construction, among other sectors, are continuing to add jobs while trimming, in different directions.
Rates and dates - The Fed likely to hold off - by David Kirk
May 10, 2024
After the Wednesday May 1st Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting chairman Powell delivered what was characterized as a dovish announcement. Some pundits called this one the first dovish announcements by chairman Powell, for that matter, also any of the members serving on the FOMC under his leadership.
The deal and the data - by David Kirk
April 12, 2024
Not confusing. Complicated. Not a commodity. Commercial property is converting to a higher and better use. Still an economic derivative. Following the economy! Talk it out. Walk it out. Got gas. Use it!
Historic preservation and springtime in Boston - by David Kirk
March 8, 2024
The commercial property market plugs forward and falls back as demand for traditional property types, office and retail predominantly, ripples and recedes in spite resilient economy. Lower water marks in occupancy are prevalent and persistent, particularly in the older inventory in the built environment in the central business district.
The Workout: Bifurcation and the portfolio - by David Kirk
February 9, 2024
The FED has reached a stabilizing level of economic activity, and will now be watching domestic micro as well as macro indicators for further action, including rate cutting, to achieve so-called soft landing. The FOMC has already implied that the March FOMC meeting will be too soon to expect the first rate cut and acknowledged that the downside rate risk is indeed in the discussions.
Hotspots everywhere: Innovation is forward and backward - by David Kirk
January 12, 2024
The turbulence in the economy, in spite of extraordinary resilience, has dominated the media. Commercial property is an economic derivative, and, accordingly, is impacted by the macro trends. Performance is also property by property, and the bottom line is dependent upon micro trends. Like the weather, climate change, and innovation. All subject to change, and the stewards of the built environment must be nimble, must be quick.
Pit stop in Vegas - Track is good - by David Kirk
December 15, 2023
The commercial property markets are gradually adjusting to the virtual workplace and collateral impact on existing and prospective inventory. The overlay of climate ready built environment is already appearing in building codes and capital grants and incentives.
Repurposing commercial property for housing: New federal funding guidance - by David Kirk
November 10, 2023
October 27, President Biden announced funding to convert empty U.S. offices into housing. As Ashram Khalil, Associated Press, highlighted the initiative in Federal Times, October 27,2023, the Federal initiative involves the Departments of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and Transportation, General Services Administration (GSA)
Recycling and restructuring: Cycles - the blue moon and restructuring activity - by David Kirk
September 15, 2023
Perfect storm during a cycle of change. Recovery during recession under monetary pressure. Restructuring activity, including Chapter 11 and consolidation - like Kimco Realty $2 billion merger with RPT Realty, exceeds 2022 so far. More deals are taking shape. The capital stack is adjusting to the rates and risks of the new normal(s). And so is property insurance where big portfolio deals will attract competition.
The new normal and the last hike - by David Kirk
August 11, 2023
Stewardship of commercial property is basic - fix it, keep it clean, manage and market professionally. With the new normal, some tweaks are more expensive, more creative and more dramatic. Mobility, Wi-Fi and adaptive reuse! As a derivative of the local economy, commercial real estate currently benefits from the demand
The changing reality of the American dream - by David Kirk
June 9, 2023
Not my headline. However, a good place to start the new story of once upon a time! Over time, the built environment has responded to the physical needs and desires of the community for sustenance and survival. Now those needs and desires are changing, and so are the dreams! The rather remarkable rate of change in retail and, now, office property has significantly impacted the value in use of commercial property.
Know the risk and proceed with caution - by David Kirk
May 12, 2023
The Fed has increased the guidance for interbank lending rate 25 basis points to 5-5.5%, again, as announced May 3, 2023. Only the minutes of the meeting to be released at a later date will record the vote to do so. Chairman Powell did add some qualifying remarks in announcing the decision which underly this decision. Pause is being discussed.
Springtime brings buds and blooming - stay where you are - by David Kirk
April 14, 2023
You must know what you are doing in this market. Borrowing from a counsel of the trade, I talk with measure. Let us examine the property and the location. Portfolio considerations are compelling and time sensitive. Action makes sense. With limits on liquidity and capital, commercial property
Liquidity and default and workouts - by David Kirk
March 10, 2023
The capital markets turbulence persists and lending in the commercial property market is still sluggish. The rates are sticky. All of these conditions relate to Fed rate increases. And uncertainties related Fed action. The high employment, wage gains, job growth, and consumer spending are supporting
Hindsight for 2023 - Starting over - by David Kirk
January 13, 2023
Hindsight is good for following patterns forward! Dust off the rates. Open the gates. Let’s get going. Get the shovels and the paint and pave the drives with care. We are shovel ready and not too soon for a new coat. We deal with certainties and build for the future, hedging the known uncertainties, and taking risks.
Determining the highest and best use - by David Kirk
December 16, 2022
The dramatic changes in a vibrant labor force are impacting just as dramatically the built environment. For any development, investment or speculation, determining the highest and best use (H&B) is first and the ongoing analysis. The appraisal process describes a 3 or 4 step process.
Current events: Complicated, not confusing - David Kirk
November 11, 2022
The Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) raised interbank guidance rate. Now at 4.5% after six rate increases, four of which were big increases, with puffy clouds in the skies, rippling in the ponds and whispering headwinds.